Key insights
- The year ahead will likely include more sales but will look much like 2024, with seasonal peaks in activity.
- The supply-constrained market will ease as more sellers enter the market, but demand will still outpace supply.
- The lock-in effect will persist; however, more sellers will have reasons to move that outweigh rates.
- Interest rates will be lower, but affordability will continue to be an issue, especially for first-time homebuyers.
- Home prices will follow demand and will likely increase, although those increases will be moderate.
Sharry Schmid, president, Edina Realty
As president of Edina Realty, Sharry Schmid provides guidance and direction to over 2,000 REALTORS® throughout Minnesota, western Wisconsin and southwestern Florida.
There is one question I get asked a lot: “How’s the real estate market?”
And often, the underlying questions are actually: “Is it a good time to sell? Is it the right time to buy?”
My answer is typically some form of, “It is potentially both.”
That’s because the real estate market is highly dependent on your goals as well as your personal and financial circumstances. If you’re a seller who bought five years ago at a low rate, your market experience will be different than a first-time homebuyer who is currently saving for a downpayment. And if you’re expecting a baby and don’t have space for a crib, waiting another 8-10 months to buy may not be an option.
Every single day, our REALTORS work to help people discover the opportunities available to them. And if you’re thinking of making your move in 2025, here’s what I think you can expect when it comes to market dynamics overall.
First, the 2024 highlights
Sellers continued to cash in on record equity, often getting their asking price (or higher) in 2024, but they didn’t keep pace with buyer demand. While we saw an increase in overall inventory, sellers still had the momentum as days on market swung in their favor. This, in part, is due to the lock-in effect, which we’ll explore in greater detail below. These factors and others led to ongoing challenges with affordability and a lack of options for buyers, who also faced higher interest rates. Still, as we moved through the year, the supply of homes for sale grew, offering more options for buyers and setting the stage for more market balance between buyers and sellers moving forward. Interest rates were a bit unpredictable, moving up and down in the 6-8% range for a 30-year conventional loan.
Minnesota
- The inventory (supply) of homes for sale did not keep pace with buyer demand, but it did increase 8.2% over 2023
- Prices rose, with median sales prices up 5.3% to $347,500
- Closed sales activity was up 2.9% over Oct. 2023
- Average days on market increased 10.5% to 42 days
Based on data from the multiple listing services for the state of Minnesota; current as of Nov. 7, 2024; published by the Minnesota Association of Realtors. All percentages are year over year.
Wisconsin
- The inventory (supply) of homes for sale did not keep pace with buyer demand, but it did increase 6.1% over 2023
- Prices rose, with median sales prices up 6% to $310,000
- YTD home sales were up 3.8% over 2023
- Average days on market increased 4.7% to 67 days
Based on the September 2024 Wisconsin Real Estate Report published by the Wisconsin Association of REALTORS. All percentages are year over year unless otherwise noted.
What will happen in real estate in 2025?
Markets aren’t as predictable as we’d like them to be, but economists and housing experts look at historical trends and the current economy to inform where markets are likely to go in the future. Based on that information, many experts agree that the housing market in 2025 will look a lot like 2024, but with more buyer opportunities and more moderate price appreciation. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS (NAR), forecasts a 9% increase in home sales in 2025, while others predict increases closer to 5%.
Housing is highly dependent on jobs and interest rates.
- Minnesota’s economy is strong and boasts one of the lower unemployment rates, ranking seventh in the U.S. at just 3%.
- Wisconsin also has a low unemployment rate, ranking second in the U.S. at just 2.8% (Sept. 2024).
- Many predict that interest rates will hover around 6-6.5% for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional loan.
- A new incoming presidential administration makes economic forecasts less certain in many areas, including housing and rates.
A seller’s market continues
A seller’s, buyer’s or balanced market refers to who has the advantage when it comes to a home sale or purchase. One key way this is determined is by tracking the months supply of homes for sale. Generally speaking, anything under a five- or six-month supply favors a seller, and anything over six months favors a buyer. This metric is calculated by projecting how long it would take the current supply of homes to sell at the current pace of sales if no new homes came on the market. Minnesota had about 2.9 months supply in Oct. 2024, according to data published by the Minnesota Association of REALTORS; Wisconsin had about 3.8 months supply, according to data published by the Wisconsin REALTORS Association for Sept. 2024.
The housing market will likely continue to favor sellers until more homes come on the market. As we know, when there is not enough of something, the price goes up, which is why we’ve seen housing prices rise, giving sellers the advantage.
The good news for buyers is that inventory levels have risen every month for the past year, and we will continue to see a steady and healthy increase in this area in both new construction and existing residential real estate.
Waiting on interest rates
It’s not uncommon for me to hear from people that they are waiting for interest rates to come down before they buy a home. While I understand this inclination, it can result in significant lost opportunities in wealth building through equity when you factor in home price appreciation. Here are some figures to consider:
- According to NAR, a typical homeowner has accumulated $147,000 in housing wealth over the last five years alone.
- According to information shared by Keeping Current Matters and based on data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the average increase in the national home price was:
- 58.4% increase in 5 years
- 319.1% increase in 30 years
- According to information shared by Keeping Current Matters and based on data from CoreLogic, the average homeowner gained about $25,000 in equity over the past year.
When you also consider that homeownership provides shelter and the ability to make home improvements without a landlord’s permission, the benefits go well beyond just financial ones.
It’s important to understand that the low rates of recent years (3-4%) were the exception if you look at historical trends, so waiting for rates to come down may not be realistic and will lead you to miss out on home appreciation in the meantime. And when you consider market dynamics, demand generally increases when rates decrease, which means home prices will likely increase if rates come down. With every year you wait, you give up significant equity opportunities.
Remember, even when you buy at a higher rate, there are financing opportunities, including the option to buy down interest rate points or to refinance in the future. Talking to a mortgage consultant can help determine what might be right for you.
Supply, demand and the lock-in effect
What’s the lock-in effect?
The lock-in effect is primarily driven by homeowners with low mortgage interest rates deferring a home sale and subsequent purchase at higher interest rates. As we know, when there is less supply, demand for that limited supply increases. This means buyers compete and prices go up.
But that’s not the only thing at play. When money was cheap and rates were very low, more people chose to hang on to their existing homes and purchase second homes or investment properties because low mortgage rates offered a better return on real estate investments.
Circumstances change
Many things drive real estate decisions beyond interest rates, and they are often referred to as the “Ds”: degrees, diamonds, diapers, divorces, downsizing and deaths. These are key reasons people decide to buy and sell, and while interest rates may cause some people to delay a change in the shorter term, the longer term often necessitates making changes (the Ds) regardless of rates.
Higher rates, a new normal
Now that we’ve seen three-plus years of higher interest rates, we will see new listings accelerating because:
- Life goes on and people need to move.
- Some homeowners who bought two or three years ago are not locked in and are more likely to relist and sell.
According to Housingwire, if you consider that 5 million homes are sold each year in the U.S., and we’re two years out from ultra-low rates, that’s 10 million homes that are not locked into low rates — a number that will only grow as we move forward. This bodes well for continued growth if interest rates remain relatively stable (or higher) over time.
Moving forward: Your 2025 outlook
Going back to my original point, where you are personally has more to do with whether 2025 will be the right time to buy or sell your home. Real estate continues to be a local business, and having the right professionals in your corner can make a big difference in understanding your options and capitalizing on opportunities.
Edina Realty agents have the largest professional network in Minnesota, western Wisconsin and southwest Florida. They can provide local neighborhood insights, home valuations and the largest selection of homes not yet available on the MLS. Reach out for help with any of your real estate needs in 2025 and beyond.